Evaluating data from 39 developed countries over 150+ years
Interesting read. However, a buy-and-hold 30 years strategy is not per se the typical case (before pension). A more realistic scenario would be to "buy every month for 30 years" and evaluate the CAGR at the end of the period. This will move the expected reward more closely to the mean, as one basically takes 360 samples from the presented distribution (though every next draw has a 1 month shorter duration).
Inflation will be the hurdle that prevents US investors from making real gains over the next 30 years.
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