My prediction for 2040 is Microsoft. It's mainly based on two things.
1. The Lindy effect: A theorised phenomenon by which the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to their current age. (Not a very strong argument)
2. Enterprise customers - Microsoft generates a lot of business from enterprise customers and these are extremely sticky. I don't see Excel, Windows and Outlook being replaced anytime soon.
Apple is a close second due to their ecosystem but for me they are one bad iPhone away from tough times.
I think if the supply chain issues last much longer wrt high end semiconductors, we are going to see significant constraints to growth within the tech sector. We have to watch ASML carefully as they are the only ones on the planet who have the technology to make and service the machines that can etch 5 nanometer line widths. Why is this important? Because every tech company (AAPL, MSFT, IBM, TSLA, etc.) that manufactures a product is not producing these wafers and the integrated circuits themselves but they sure do install them in their phones, cars and computers. ASML has withdrawn their workers from China. Now, China has beaucoup ASML machines yet they do not have the expertise to run and service them. These systems are about the size of a bus. China has a significant number of these "buses" that are now idle.
I’m going to be the one who says all 4 of those tech companies you listed stay in the top 10, mainly because I think that those companies have positioned themselves well enough where 18 years isn’t long enough to bring them out of the top 10. (I would write more but I’m writing this way after this article was written anyway).
That being said in 40 years I think all of these companies could struggle to stay high, particularly google and apple.
Almost all of Google’s revenue comes from ads, and I think there’s a world where advertising will start to go more direct to consumer, and skip such heavy reliance on middle men like google. The way they are and will always be able to defend this is through having massive amounts of data, where there status as a middle man also helps optimize the ads you’re putting out, but that’s not something that usually lasts forever.
I also think apples interface isolationism has to come back and bite them at some point, but obviously they have built themselves the most cushion by far.
I think it's Amazon. They are diversifying heavily (consumer goods, grocery, pharmacy, etc.) and they are the uncontested leader in logistics. Not only that but they have the largest enterprise cloud business on the market. As we move to an increasingly digital world, Amazon will continue to bridge the gap between the digital and the physical.
My prediction for 2040 is Microsoft. It's mainly based on two things.
1. The Lindy effect: A theorised phenomenon by which the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to their current age. (Not a very strong argument)
2. Enterprise customers - Microsoft generates a lot of business from enterprise customers and these are extremely sticky. I don't see Excel, Windows and Outlook being replaced anytime soon.
Apple is a close second due to their ecosystem but for me they are one bad iPhone away from tough times.
🤝
If it is only 20 years, Exxon. We are nowhere near the end of carbon-based fuels.
I think if the supply chain issues last much longer wrt high end semiconductors, we are going to see significant constraints to growth within the tech sector. We have to watch ASML carefully as they are the only ones on the planet who have the technology to make and service the machines that can etch 5 nanometer line widths. Why is this important? Because every tech company (AAPL, MSFT, IBM, TSLA, etc.) that manufactures a product is not producing these wafers and the integrated circuits themselves but they sure do install them in their phones, cars and computers. ASML has withdrawn their workers from China. Now, China has beaucoup ASML machines yet they do not have the expertise to run and service them. These systems are about the size of a bus. China has a significant number of these "buses" that are now idle.
I'd say MSFT, for the simple reason that it continues to provide so much value to so many people and the product continues to be sharpened up.
MSFT has the scale to purchase competition and integrate it as well.
Tesla.
You are mistaken if you think they are only a car company.
I’m going to be the one who says all 4 of those tech companies you listed stay in the top 10, mainly because I think that those companies have positioned themselves well enough where 18 years isn’t long enough to bring them out of the top 10. (I would write more but I’m writing this way after this article was written anyway).
That being said in 40 years I think all of these companies could struggle to stay high, particularly google and apple.
Almost all of Google’s revenue comes from ads, and I think there’s a world where advertising will start to go more direct to consumer, and skip such heavy reliance on middle men like google. The way they are and will always be able to defend this is through having massive amounts of data, where there status as a middle man also helps optimize the ads you’re putting out, but that’s not something that usually lasts forever.
I also think apples interface isolationism has to come back and bite them at some point, but obviously they have built themselves the most cushion by far.
I think it's Amazon. They are diversifying heavily (consumer goods, grocery, pharmacy, etc.) and they are the uncontested leader in logistics. Not only that but they have the largest enterprise cloud business on the market. As we move to an increasingly digital world, Amazon will continue to bridge the gap between the digital and the physical.