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Greetings readers! This week we are trying something new with our first discussion thread. 😁
If you have been investing in the market for a while, you would have seen both ups as well as downs, like me. So tell me,
What was your best investment/trade? 📈
What was your worst investment/trade? 📉
What did you learn from your experience? 🤔
Join your fellow investors and traders in the discussion below. If it’s interesting, I might do a deep-dive into your strategy to see how and why it works!
Another announcement:It’s holiday season 🧑🎄, and I’m taking a break from the newsletter for the first time since March! I will still be responding to your comments on Substack and Twitter, but there won’t be a full-length article for some time… I have some special articles planned for when I return, so stay tuned! 🙌
BEST INVESTMENT: My education, traveling experiences, and smart people.
BEST TRADE: AMD at 77$ and NVDA at 130$. About %100 gain in a year. Still holding them.
WORST TRADE: DOGE :) bought it at 0.40$ didn’t sell at 0.70$ then gave up and sold around 0.20$
WHAT I LEARNED: During my college, I used to read a lot about CPU and GPU products, so I was sure that those companies would thrive even further in the future, and I decided to invest in their shares. However, when I bought DOGE it was all because of hype. My lesson so far is that “Trust your inner voice. You invest only in things you have faith in and things you really know.”
This seems like a demonstration of Peter Lynch's investment thesis - "Invest in what you know", in every sense! But just to push back a little bit, did your closeness to the topic also create blind spots at times? For example, were there CPU/GPU companies that you were confident about that did not perform as expected? Or ones that were not on your radar that picked up later? How did this contribute to your investing strategy?
Interesting that you mention non-market investments like education and traveling. We usually tend to discount those, but that's a more holistic approach.
Excellent questions! First of all, thanks for the great articles and for creating this like-minded community.
Yes, I agree that it aligns with Lynch’s approach on ”if something attracts you as a consumer, it should also attract your interest as an investment”.
To answer your questions; actually, it didn’t create any blind spots in the same market or maybe I haven’t realized them yet. My readings weren’t about investment. I was only researching the overall market and these two showed higher growth potential as a consumer. I could also choose INTEL too (they were way larger than AMD) but their approach was always profit/revenue-oriented. Also, INTEL’s products were becoming less efficient per dollar with every new release.
However; if I had a broader perspective, I could have bought TSM or MU which were the main semiconductor companies because if there is any growth potential in CPU/GPU, there will be high growth in the correlated market such as semiconductor productions.
My experience is way different to others here because I'm a dorky, buy-and-hold indexer. Still, for variety:
Best: International shares index fund (60% of this is basically the S&P 500).
Worst: bonds index fund.
Disclosure: These are the only two investments that I own. No-coiner, no individual stocks, no SPACs, no puts or calls, no fun.
Learning experience: Obviously bonds didn't tank but I realized that there's no point being conservative until you're up near retirement. If not, best to get invested in shares ASAP and stay invested for as long as possible. Still have some bonds but only enough to be an extension of my cash emergency fund.
The S&P is generally less volatile than international stocks but I think returns are comparable, excluding emerging markets. I'd like to see your analysis.
I'm not American so the S&P is international for me.
I've been indexing for about a decade. No restraint required because I'm lazy and aware of my own limitations. I respect that some can outdo the market but I know that I can't.
I was just lucky. Pandemic started, lockdowns everywhere, oil/gas prices lowest ive ever seen. I saw a massive drop in a chart and decided to put most of my eggs in 1 basket. Turns out it worked and we all went back to work eventually.
iShares energy etf. I'm still holding. Always had a mind of buy-and-hold forever. Hate to trade: not sure when to sell, usually regret selling too early. I'm +40% on QCOM, love the company, love their strive for the diversification and readiness to dominate 5G and IoT, but hesitating if I should hold or sell. Spent Almost a year with -10-15%, used to the red figures:) Now when it's at ATH, I'm hesitating. Trading again makes me nervous and too emotional. Thinking of moving away from single stocks and buying-and-holding-forever VTI and QQQ. At the same time excited about growth stocks like PYPL downturn and and want to buy as much as possible. Strange kind of schizophrenia you may say :)
You might like Doomberg's substack at https://doomberg.substack.com. He does a great job covering energy policies and the impact of economic policy on the supply chain,etc. Well-researched, well-written.
It was very much beaten down after almost going bankrupt. Then with a fresh cash injection the fortunes changed dramatically. Benefits from the obvious EV trend too and has expanded into Europe.
SPACs really are an interesting topic. Would be great to hear your thoughts on them. My first question when I encounter a SPAC is ‘what is this company trying to circumvent by avoiding the traditional IPO process’.
Taleb's "Black Swan" theory got the spotlight when he made a fortune off options during the '08 crash, but on exploring his work further, I see that he has made a lot of low probability bets that haven't paid off as well. I read somewhere that the best thing to do is to allocate most of your funds in index funds and safe choices while betting a very small amount on options.
That's a pretty interesting question I could look into in the future - What proportion of your portfolio should you bet on short call options?
Congrats on the AMD-GME buys. That panned out well, didn't it? :)
a. Time spent reading and researching which lead to, b. buying a basket of uranium miner stocks in 2018 (among others)
Worst Investment;
Not buying enough cheap stocks during the COVID-19 March 2020 correction :D
Learnings;
Unrelated to the Best / Worst investments. The fact that someone is an expert or has a fancy title, doesn't mean that person is right or even knows what they're talking about. There are just different levels of conviction/confidence I guess. I've learned to always take everything with a pinch of salt and try to see the opposite point of view. Which then makes you question if the point of view that you find more reasonable is the result of good research or pure confirmation bias, but I'm working on that! 😂
BEST INVESTMENT: My education, traveling experiences, and smart people.
BEST TRADE: AMD at 77$ and NVDA at 130$. About %100 gain in a year. Still holding them.
WORST TRADE: DOGE :) bought it at 0.40$ didn’t sell at 0.70$ then gave up and sold around 0.20$
WHAT I LEARNED: During my college, I used to read a lot about CPU and GPU products, so I was sure that those companies would thrive even further in the future, and I decided to invest in their shares. However, when I bought DOGE it was all because of hype. My lesson so far is that “Trust your inner voice. You invest only in things you have faith in and things you really know.”
This seems like a demonstration of Peter Lynch's investment thesis - "Invest in what you know", in every sense! But just to push back a little bit, did your closeness to the topic also create blind spots at times? For example, were there CPU/GPU companies that you were confident about that did not perform as expected? Or ones that were not on your radar that picked up later? How did this contribute to your investing strategy?
Interesting that you mention non-market investments like education and traveling. We usually tend to discount those, but that's a more holistic approach.
Excellent questions! First of all, thanks for the great articles and for creating this like-minded community.
Yes, I agree that it aligns with Lynch’s approach on ”if something attracts you as a consumer, it should also attract your interest as an investment”.
To answer your questions; actually, it didn’t create any blind spots in the same market or maybe I haven’t realized them yet. My readings weren’t about investment. I was only researching the overall market and these two showed higher growth potential as a consumer. I could also choose INTEL too (they were way larger than AMD) but their approach was always profit/revenue-oriented. Also, INTEL’s products were becoming less efficient per dollar with every new release.
However; if I had a broader perspective, I could have bought TSM or MU which were the main semiconductor companies because if there is any growth potential in CPU/GPU, there will be high growth in the correlated market such as semiconductor productions.
Looking forward to reading your next articles.
Thanks for the elaboration. It makes more sense now... Hope to have more such discussions in the coming weeks :)
My experience is way different to others here because I'm a dorky, buy-and-hold indexer. Still, for variety:
Best: International shares index fund (60% of this is basically the S&P 500).
Worst: bonds index fund.
Disclosure: These are the only two investments that I own. No-coiner, no individual stocks, no SPACs, no puts or calls, no fun.
Learning experience: Obviously bonds didn't tank but I realized that there's no point being conservative until you're up near retirement. If not, best to get invested in shares ASAP and stay invested for as long as possible. Still have some bonds but only enough to be an extension of my cash emergency fund.
The global version of The Intelligent Investor, I see :)
How have international shares index funds performed in comparison with the S&P500, historically speaking? Might be a good post idea for me there.
How long have you stayed put with this strategy? I imagine it must take great restraint!
The S&P is generally less volatile than international stocks but I think returns are comparable, excluding emerging markets. I'd like to see your analysis.
I'm not American so the S&P is international for me.
I've been indexing for about a decade. No restraint required because I'm lazy and aware of my own limitations. I respect that some can outdo the market but I know that I can't.
Yes, I see an analysis idea there... I had planned to look into index funds after this article did well: https://marketsentiment.substack.com/p/active-vs-passive. Now there's one more topic to look into. Stay tuned!
(Sorry if this is a duplicate comment, the original one was deleted because of some glitch)
I like your strategy. zer0 Excitement. zer0 bragging rights. But history shows it works.
Best investment : my education and time spent networking
best trade : GME and Bitcoin At 60k sell
Worst trade : Crude Oil Futures
Best: ishares energy etf. 200% when i sold.
Worst: multiple cannabis stocks. 1 was 99% loss and another was 80% loss when i sold.
I'm looking into energy investments. Stay tuned! Any learnings from the experience?
I was just lucky. Pandemic started, lockdowns everywhere, oil/gas prices lowest ive ever seen. I saw a massive drop in a chart and decided to put most of my eggs in 1 basket. Turns out it worked and we all went back to work eventually.
iShares energy etf. I'm still holding. Always had a mind of buy-and-hold forever. Hate to trade: not sure when to sell, usually regret selling too early. I'm +40% on QCOM, love the company, love their strive for the diversification and readiness to dominate 5G and IoT, but hesitating if I should hold or sell. Spent Almost a year with -10-15%, used to the red figures:) Now when it's at ATH, I'm hesitating. Trading again makes me nervous and too emotional. Thinking of moving away from single stocks and buying-and-holding-forever VTI and QQQ. At the same time excited about growth stocks like PYPL downturn and and want to buy as much as possible. Strange kind of schizophrenia you may say :)
Hahaha... To buy and hold, or to sell and diversify, that is the question.
You might like Doomberg's substack at https://doomberg.substack.com. He does a great job covering energy policies and the impact of economic policy on the supply chain,etc. Well-researched, well-written.
Best - WFC bought at 24$, QCOM and AAPL bought at ~120$. Worst - Rize Medical Cannabis etf and PLUG, bought at almost ATH.
Best % - shiba Inu
Best $ amount - Rkt
Worst - tops
Best - Xilam animation from 2 to 8-9 . Modern Dental x5 bagger in 6 months.
Worst: Koovs a startup, 100% loss.
My best investment has been NIO which I picked up for under $9 in July 2020 and I still hold.
My worst investment was PSFE. Some lessons learned here with SPACs and management not living up to the shiny promises. Sold this for a 50% loss.
NIO seems to have bagged a 3-4x return... An interesting pick! How did you zero in on it?
SPACs are a topic on my radar - Might write on them in the future.
Your substack is a great find! I'll be going through those deep dives and earnings reviews :)
It was very much beaten down after almost going bankrupt. Then with a fresh cash injection the fortunes changed dramatically. Benefits from the obvious EV trend too and has expanded into Europe.
SPACs really are an interesting topic. Would be great to hear your thoughts on them. My first question when I encounter a SPAC is ‘what is this company trying to circumvent by avoiding the traditional IPO process’.
Appreciate the feedback too 👍
Best investment is between an AMD Jan 2023 LEAP @28.5 or GME @79 per share
Worst investment looks like an April VIAC June call, strike price $45
My main lesson learned is to avoid short call options unless I am truly confident in the call and am comfortable loosing all my premium.
Taleb's "Black Swan" theory got the spotlight when he made a fortune off options during the '08 crash, but on exploring his work further, I see that he has made a lot of low probability bets that haven't paid off as well. I read somewhere that the best thing to do is to allocate most of your funds in index funds and safe choices while betting a very small amount on options.
That's a pretty interesting question I could look into in the future - What proportion of your portfolio should you bet on short call options?
Congrats on the AMD-GME buys. That panned out well, didn't it? :)
Best Investment;
a. Time spent reading and researching which lead to, b. buying a basket of uranium miner stocks in 2018 (among others)
Worst Investment;
Not buying enough cheap stocks during the COVID-19 March 2020 correction :D
Learnings;
Unrelated to the Best / Worst investments. The fact that someone is an expert or has a fancy title, doesn't mean that person is right or even knows what they're talking about. There are just different levels of conviction/confidence I guess. I've learned to always take everything with a pinch of salt and try to see the opposite point of view. Which then makes you question if the point of view that you find more reasonable is the result of good research or pure confirmation bias, but I'm working on that! 😂
Hi, how are you