"your chances of hitting a moonshot are also much higher following the top-10 strategy" - one note here is that it's much better spread out for next 90 Vs top 10, where it's concentrated in the 15-17 era.

Yeah! True. The main reason I can think of is that the base is becoming much bigger now. In 2018, the 10th biggest coin was worth $8B. a 100x return on that means the coin has to become valued close to 1 Trillion which is very very hard. Thats why I had highlighted the base effect in the limitations!

Fully agree. My thesis recently if that bigger shifts will come from VC type investments, or substitution effects between coins (rather than whole ecosystem growing)

This only confirms what your previous piece "How to consistently make returns from the Crypto market by using Dollar Cost Averaging" pointed out, but adding an extra positive conclusion: not only investing in the Top 10 cryptos yields the best results, but also gives the highest chance of hitting a moonshot.

I'm always grateful for your amazing skills at analyzing data.

Do you think that you might have a better chance at finding a moonshot by finding freshly listed cryptos? I would assume that since those have the smallest market caps they have the most room for growth. Even if 99% of them fail that 1% could pay for all the rest.

Nice piece, my friend!

Muchas gracias por su trabajo. Ha sido muy valioso para mí leer sus informes. Saludos desde Argentina.

You are welcome :)

"your chances of hitting a moonshot are also much higher following the top-10 strategy" - one note here is that it's much better spread out for next 90 Vs top 10, where it's concentrated in the 15-17 era.

Yeah! True. The main reason I can think of is that the base is becoming much bigger now. In 2018, the 10th biggest coin was worth $8B. a 100x return on that means the coin has to become valued close to 1 Trillion which is very very hard. Thats why I had highlighted the base effect in the limitations!

Fully agree. My thesis recently if that bigger shifts will come from VC type investments, or substitution effects between coins (rather than whole ecosystem growing)

This strategy involves buying the top 10 cryptos -does that include stablecoins?

No Pete. Stable coins are removed from the analysis

Is 10,000% return 100x ?

Hi Pete - Its technically 101x return. Just kept that since round figures are nicer

edited Jun 3, 2022How many types of DCAs are out there, and would it factor in volatility, like Bitcoin's NVT ratio?

This only confirms what your previous piece "How to consistently make returns from the Crypto market by using Dollar Cost Averaging" pointed out, but adding an extra positive conclusion: not only investing in the Top 10 cryptos yields the best results, but also gives the highest chance of hitting a moonshot.

I'm always grateful for your amazing skills at analyzing data.

Thank you one more time

Thanks! Yes, the analysis turned up some surprising results. Glad you found it useful :)

Do you think that you might have a better chance at finding a moonshot by finding freshly listed cryptos? I would assume that since those have the smallest market caps they have the most room for growth. Even if 99% of them fail that 1% could pay for all the rest.