I analyzed the last 15 years of news articles to see how many times Michael Burry predicted a crash and how many times he turned out to be right! Here are the results.
You failed to realize that Burry's calls are meant to be within a timeframe of YEARS of being right...you will note that his bearish calls rarely, if ever, say BY WHEN such would occur. I appreciate your research, however, it is merely an exercise in tedium due to the entirely incorrect assumption that his predictions were meant to come true within a specific, and in your analysis actually variable, timeframe. He has continuously reiterated, even with the Big Short, that he does not care if his predictions are wrong for years. It is not a matter of if, but when.
From Burry himself:
“For me though, if I get within years on a thesis coming true, I’m happy,” he says. “Most people are focused on days, weeks or months.”
There is a limit to this logic. Saying the "market will crash hard within years" is a truism that conveys no new information; of course markets are cycical.
The height of uninformed ignorance. One can detect that markets are vulnerable to a crash of epic proportions and the coming of financial instabilities rarely if ever seen before in US economic history. The exact date, even if in terms of months or the year, is undeterminable except in hindsight. Should the warning regarding the former not be shared because of the inherent impossibility of the later? I think not.
I appreciate your level headedness, Ram, and agree with you. I don't, however, think it is impossible to evaluate the probabilities of the possibilities of when. Wave theory can be useful for this and coincides with your viewpoint. 2023-4ish looks to be the start of at least a decade long bear market. Avi Gilburt has been uncanny with these kinds of long-term calls. Check this out :
You failed to realize that Burry's calls are meant to be within a timeframe of YEARS of being right...you will note that his bearish calls rarely, if ever, say BY WHEN such would occur. I appreciate your research, however, it is merely an exercise in tedium due to the entirely incorrect assumption that his predictions were meant to come true within a specific, and in your analysis actually variable, timeframe. He has continuously reiterated, even with the Big Short, that he does not care if his predictions are wrong for years. It is not a matter of if, but when.
From Burry himself:
“For me though, if I get within years on a thesis coming true, I’m happy,” he says. “Most people are focused on days, weeks or months.”
There is a limit to this logic. Saying the "market will crash hard within years" is a truism that conveys no new information; of course markets are cycical.
Agreed. I use wave theory to better pinpoint these cycles. What do you use?
I don't really. I adjust probabilistically based on where we seem to be in the cycle (a-la Howard Marks, summarized for instance in https://medium.com/the-capital/mastering-the-market-cycle-the-howard-marks-way-fb69e933efd4) but I don't really try to predict it; I don't think it's an exercise with positive expected value.
Even comments here are on another level.
Haha, yes! Our subscribers have contributed a lot to the ideas we explore :)
The height of uninformed ignorance. One can detect that markets are vulnerable to a crash of epic proportions and the coming of financial instabilities rarely if ever seen before in US economic history. The exact date, even if in terms of months or the year, is undeterminable except in hindsight. Should the warning regarding the former not be shared because of the inherent impossibility of the later? I think not.
I appreciate your level headedness, Ram, and agree with you. I don't, however, think it is impossible to evaluate the probabilities of the possibilities of when. Wave theory can be useful for this and coincides with your viewpoint. 2023-4ish looks to be the start of at least a decade long bear market. Avi Gilburt has been uncanny with these kinds of long-term calls. Check this out :
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4429877-sentiment-speaks-its-the-roaring-20s-again-begin-to-prepare-for-the-same-ending